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Time Series Analysis: Trend Projection

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Using a trend projection, forecast the demand for Period 9

https://brainmass.com/statistics/regression-analysis/time-series-analysis-trend-projection-524586

Solution Summary

The solution provides step by step method for the calculation of time series analysis. Formula for the calculation and Interpretations of the results are also included.

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Statistics Study Guide

1. A time series is a collection of data recorded over a period of time, usually monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Two examples of time series are a department store's sales by quarter since opening in 1962 and the annual production of sulfuric acid since 1970.
0True 0False

2. Long-term forecasts are usually more than one year into the future. Projections of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years are common.
0True 0False

3. A statement of the long-term goals of management is considered necessary in order to have the raw materials, production facilities, and staff available to meet the estimated future.
0True 0False

4. One component of a time series is the secular trend. It is the smooth movement of a series over a short period of time, such as a few months or quarters.
0True 0False

5. Episodic and residual variations can be projected into the future.
0True 0False

6. The following linear trend equation was developed for annual sales from 1984 to 1990 with 1984 the base or zero year. Y1 = 500 + 60X (in \$ thousands). The estimated sales for 1984 (in \$ thousands) is:
a. \$ 500
b. \$ 560
c. \$1,040
d. \$1,100
e. None of the above

10. The general equation for the logarithmic trend equation using the coded method is: log of y1 =
a. log a + log b (X)
b. log a x log b (X)
c. a x b (X)
d. a + b (X)
e. None of the above

11. If the exports (in \$ millions) for the period 1986 through 1990 were \$878, \$892, \$864, \$870 and 912, respectively, what are these values called?
a. Moving average
b. Linear trend equation
c. Logarithmic trend equation
d. Time series
e. None of the above

29. Given a linear time series trend, Y' = 5.2 + 3.1t, what is the forecast for 2002 if the time series started in 1995?
a. 23.8
b. 26.9
c. 30.0
d. 21.7
e. 32.07

30. What is a disadvantage of the estimated method of determining a trend line equation?

a. Provides quick approximations
b. Is subject to human error
c. Provides accurate forecasts
d. Is too difficult to calculate
e. None of the above

31. A logarithmic trend equation should be used for forecasts when the time series is increasing by?

a. Equal amounts
b. Increasing percents
c. Increasing amounts
d. Increasing or decreasing percents
e. None of the above

32. In a seasonal index (4 seasons) the total of the quarterly means will be

a. 4.0
b. 1.0
c. 100%
d. a variable
e. 5.0

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