Please see attached file for full problem description.
Develop a four-month moving average forecast for Garden Wallace Supply and compute the MAD. A three-month moving average forecast was developed in the section on the moving averages in Table 5.3.
Using MAD, determine whether the forecast in Problem 5-12 or the forecast in the section concerning Wallace Garden Supply is more accurate.
Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other two years are each given the weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?
YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER
(1,000S OF BAGS)
Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past five years.
The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1's sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using the exponential smoothing with a weight of = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners (see problem 5-18).
Management of Davis's Department Store has used time-series extrapolation to forecast retail sales for the next four quarters. The sales estimates are $100,000, $120,000, $140,000, and $160,000 for the respective quarters before adjusting for seasonality. Seasonal indices for the four quarters have been found to be 1.30, 0.90, 0.70, and 1.10, respectively. Compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast.
This posting provides solution to several forecasting problems including moving average, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, weighted moving average etc.