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Data Modeling and Forecast

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(a) Make an Excel line graph of the data on computer viruses.
(b) Discuss the underlying causes that might explain the trend or pattern.
(c) Fit three trends (linear, exponential, quadratic).
(d) Which trend model is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain.
(e) Make a forecast for 2003, using a trend model of your choice or a judgment forecast.

Virus Infections Per Month Per 1,000 PCs

Year Viruses
1996 10
1997 21
1998 32
1999 80
2000 91
2001 103
2002 105.

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Solution provided by:
Anwesha Ghosh, MSc
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  • MSc, Osmania University
  • MSc, Indian Institute of Technology - Roorkee (I.I.T.-ROORKEE)
  • BSc, Banaras Hindu University
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