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Forecast Analysis

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The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000 seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey team and that host a variety of concerts, trade shows and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened:

Year Occupancy Rate
1 83
2 78
3 75
4 81
5 86
6 85
7 89
8 90
9 86

Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with a =.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20 and B =.20 and a linear forecast. Compare the three forecast, using MAD and average error (E) and indicate which seem to be most accurate.

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Forecast Analysis

Problem 1
Do the Problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question (c): Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
a) Develop forecasts for period 5 through 10 using 4-month moving averages.

Problem 2
Do the problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question: Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
a.) Exponential smooting with smoothing constant ? = 0.1. Use the actual value of the first period as the starting forecast for the second period.

Problem 3
Do the problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question: Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
Copy and paste the following data set in Excel to save the typing effort and possible mistakes in data entry.

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