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Forecast: Monthly Index

Each worker's monthly caseload is determined by the number of cases received and the number of workers available during the month. There are two excel spreadsheets attached. One shows the number of cases for each month, number of staff who reported to work, and the caseload per worker for each of the past 48 months. The other one shows the seasonal index for each month and caseload forecasts for the next 48 months. The workers' caseload changes periodically, mainly down in the summer, up in the fall, down in winter, up in the spring.

a) Determine the average monthly rate at which caseload is changing.

b) At which rate or point in time should additional workers be made available to keep caseload from going over 12. (Please explain).

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Solution Preview

Please refer to the EXCEL attachment for details.

The average monthly change of caseload is given by the following equation:

Solution Summary

This solution is comprised of detailed step-by-step calculation and analysis of the given problemrelated to Seasonal Forecasting and provides students with a clear perspective of underlying concept.