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    Interpretation of a Statistical Test

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    Please help me with the following statistical problem:

    A sample is taken prior to a major election of likely voters. The null hypothesis is that the votes will be split 50/50. One candidate gets 54% of the support in the sample and the p-value for this sample is calculated to be 0.12.

    What is the correct interpretation of the p-value?

    Is it that there is a 95% probability that the the true population percentage is 54% plus/minus 12%? Or, am I confused about the interpretation?

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    Solution Preview

    The null hypothesis is that the candidate will get 50% of the votes (p = 0.50). The alternative hypothesis is that the candidate will get more than 50% of the votes (p > 0.50).

    To test the hypotheses, you took a sample of voters, and 54% of the sample said they would vote for the candidate. Then you did a statistical test (a z-test of proportions) to see if this result was statistically significant, and got a p-value of p = ...

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