Interpretation of a Statistical Test
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Please help me with the following statistical problem:
A sample is taken prior to a major election of likely voters. The null hypothesis is that the votes will be split 50/50. One candidate gets 54% of the support in the sample and the p-value for this sample is calculated to be 0.12.
What is the correct interpretation of the p-value?
Is it that there is a 95% probability that the the true population percentage is 54% plus/minus 12%? Or, am I confused about the interpretation?
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This solution provides a detailed step by step explanation of the given statistics problem.
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The null hypothesis is that the candidate will get 50% of the votes (p = 0.50). The alternative hypothesis is that the candidate will get more than 50% of the votes (p > 0.50).
To test the hypotheses, you took a sample of voters, and 54% of the sample said they would vote for the candidate. Then you did a statistical test (a z-test of proportions) to see if this result was statistically significant, and got a p-value of p = ...
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