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Conditional Probability

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An oil drilling operation predicts the success of a new well based on the geological structure. Experience shows what the probability of a type A structure at the site of a productive well is 0.40. The company also knows that 50% of all wells are drilled in locations with type A structure. Finally, 30% of all wells drilled are productive.

If drilling process begins in a location with a type A structure, what is the probability of having a productive well at that location?

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For this you need to use Bayes' Theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A)×P(A)/P(B).

We want to know: what is the ...

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