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# Bayes Theorem Calculations

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Experience has shown a company that the cost of delivering a small package within 24 hours is \$14.80. The company charges \$15.50 for shipment but guarantees to refund the charge if delivery is not made within 24 hours. If
the company fails to deliver only 2% of its packages within the 24-hour period, what is the expected gain per package?

##### Solution Summary

Experience has shown a company that the cost of delivering a small package within 24 hours is \$14.80. The company charges \$15.50 for shipment but guarantees to refund the charge if delivery is not made within 24 hours. If
the company fails to deliver only 2% of its packages within the 24-hour period, what is the expected gain per package?

##### Solution Preview

Let X denote the gain of delivering a small package within 24 hours. Then X is a random variable, from the hypothesis, we ...

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###### Education
• BSc , Wuhan Univ. China
• MA, Shandong Univ.
###### Recent Feedback
• "Your solution, looks excellent. I recognize things from previous chapters. I have seen the standard deviation formula you used to get 5.154. I do understand the Central Limit Theorem needs the sample size (n) to be greater than 30, we have 100. I do understand the sample mean(s) of the population will follow a normal distribution, and that CLT states the sample mean of population is the population (mean), we have 143.74. But when and WHY do we use the standard deviation formula where you got 5.154. WHEN & Why use standard deviation of the sample mean. I don't understand, why don't we simply use the "100" I understand that standard deviation is the square root of variance. I do understand that the variance is the square of the differences of each sample data value minus the mean. But somehow, why not use 100, why use standard deviation of sample mean? Please help explain."
• "excellent work"
• "Thank you so much for all of your help!!! I will be posting another assignment. Please let me know (once posted), if the credits I'm offering is enough or you ! Thanks again!"
• "Thank you"
• "Thank you very much for your valuable time and assistance!"

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