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Decision Under Uncertainty - Bayes' Theorem

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Need help with the following:
Research statistical data in a business context that requires a decision. Use probability concepts found in Bayes' Theorem to formulate a decision.

Address the following:
- Include how you applied concepts to formulate your decision.
- Include appropriate probability concepts and your application to find resulting data to limit uncertainty in this decision.
- Identify each outcome from your statistical analysis, providing rationale for each.
- Identify tradeoffs between accuracy and precision required by various probability concepts and the effect on your data.
- Include the decision you made based on statistical data.

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Solution Summary

The response addresses the queries posted in 795 words with references.

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The response addresses the queries posted in 795 words with references.

//The paper presented here is about decision making in uncertainty using statistical tools. One such tool is Byes? theorem which looks at the probability of occurrence of events as the outcome of the previous events. //

Decision making is a crucial aspect of any business. Managers have to take important decisions for their businesses every now and then. These can be regarding product marketing or promotion, business expansion, workforce, work allocation and others. To take a decision and ensure that it works correctly, there are several tools and techniques. Statistical tools and techniques are popular and helpful in taking such decisions. These tools are available for business managers to look out for the possible outcomes of a decision and limit the uncertainties associated with them (Curwin, Slater, 2007).

Probability concept

Probability is the likelihood of occurrence of an event. In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem is a concept where there are two distinct interpretations. These are Bayesian interpretation and frequentist interpretation. Bayesian interpretation expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to ...

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Ashish Sharma, MBA (IP)
Education
  • MBA (IP), International Center for Internationa Business
  • BBA, University of Rajasthan
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