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Analysis of the Senate Race

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Analyze Hillary Clinton and John Spencer Senate race:

Who will win?

Margain of error?

Issues in the race?

Trends in the Polls?

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Who Will Win?

The polls strongly suggest that Hillary will have a landslide victory. According to Rasmussen Research, in a survey of 500 Likely Voters taken on July 31, 2006, we have the following evidence:

Former Pentagon official Kathleen Troia McFarland and Yonkers Mayor John Spencer have emerged as the leading contenders for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate, but neither is making headway. In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the race, Clinton now leads both candidates 61% to 31%.

Another source (the Siena Research Institute): http://www.siena.edu/sri/results/2006/06_Oct_NYPoll.htm

"Hillary is coasting to a re-election victory against an opponent who continues to be unknown to more than two-thirds of likely voters," Greenberg said. "With little money, little name recognition, and only three weeks to go, Spencer is facing a loss in every region of the state."

Clinton has a 50-point lead in New York City, a 15-point lead in the downstate suburbs, and a 19-point lead upstate. Her favorable/unfavorable rating is 56-38 ...

Solution Summary

An analysis of the senate race is provided. The expert analyzes the Hillary Clinton and John Spencer Senate race.

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Your analysis should use the Leesburg Grid (provided in a downloadable document below) as your principal tool for assessing this potential race. In developing your memo, you should also include a Leesburg Grid which must be annotated with each candidate's perceived strengths and weaknesses.
As part of this analysis, include:
1. Your assessment of their respective real strengths and weaknesses.
2. Any insights from past races.
3. Your assessment of the most significant potential issue contrast.
4. Your forecast of the likely winner of this match-up.
While your memo is arguably an exercise in speculation, the challenge is to use facts to support your claims. Don't hesitate to reference past statements or positions made by either of these individuals to illustrate your points.
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Format Requirements
Please draft your assignment according to the prescribed memorandum format: 0.5-inch margins on top and bottom and 1-inch margins, left and right; Arial 12-point font; with your name on each page of the document.

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