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risk and uncertainty

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1. Distinguish risk and uncertainty. Distinguish a priori and statistical probabilities.

2. Distinguish sensitivity and simulation analyses. Give an example for each.

3. Please define the following terms:

standard deviation
expected value
normal distribution
standard normal transformation (to get standardized value Z)

4. The chance to win the Jackpot in Powerball lottery is one over 150 million. One hot summer day of 2003, the Jackpot prize went up to $300 million. Professor Han bought three tickets (each ticket costs one dollar as you may know).

What is the expected value of each ticket?
Did Professor Han make a rational decision or what?

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Solution Summary

Standard normal distribution is modeled.

See Also This Related BrainMass Solution

Strategic Risk Management in the Oresund Bridge case

See the attached file.

Please use the following web sites to answer the questions:
Official web site for the Oresund Bridge - http://uk.oresundsbron.com/page/34
An official public information site with up-to-date information on the region, available in English - http://www.tendensoresund.org/en

1?What process would you use for identifying project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? What risks would you raise for each alternative?
2?What process would you use for categorizing project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? How would you actually categorize them?
3?What process would you use for ranking project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? How would you actually rank them?

1?How would you identify the key decision paths and options that can be anticipated in the project? What are these key decision paths and options in your opinion?
2?How might you use a decision tree analysis to evaluate the alternatives? What numbers would you use in this analysis?
3?How might the techniques we have learned so far have helped the first Oresund Bridge project? Why?

TCOs B & D:
1?What risks would you add to a risk matrix for this project to build a second Oresund Bridge?
2?For the risk you named above, how would you categorize that risk? Please include risk impacts, risk probabilities, risk severity, and risk response categories.
3?What types of opportunities might you see for this second Oresund Bridge project?

1?What information should be contained in your Risk Management Plan for this second Oresund Bridge project?
2?What tools and techniques would you use for the second Oresund Bridge to proactively managing risks? Please describe the tool.
3?What kinds of outputs would be expected from the Risk Monitoring and Control process?

1?What factors would need to be considered before developing a risk-based schedule for the new Oresund Bridge Project?
2?Given the project description and identified risks, what would be the key factors in your sensitivity analysis? Why?
3?Do you think that your analysis would help to determine the effects of the previously identified risks on the project? Why or why not?

1?As an Oresund Bridge project manager, how would you determine when project work should be contracted out, and how does risk enter into the decision?
2?What kinds of contract types might be good to use for the second Oresund Bridge Project?
3?Share examples of issues that surfaced in the original Oresund Bridge Project related to contracts. What could have been done to prevent the impact to the contract (if anything)?

1?What types of items might you include in our new Oresund Bridge project's Risk Management Plan? In what ways would this help mitigate project risk?
2?How would you communicate those risks to the appropriate stakeholders so that key decisions regarding risk management can be made?
3?What are the key things you have learned this session from our sets of discussions on the second Panama Canal Project that might apply to the second Oresund Bridge Project?

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