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    Evaluating conclusions based on premises for 12 arguments.

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    Given the premises, discuss whether the conclusion of each argument that follows is (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, (b) probably true, or (c) possibly true or possibly false. You should expect disagreement on these items, but the closer your answers are to your instructor's, the better.
    1. The sign on the parking meter says "Out of Order," so the meter isn't working.
    2. The annual rainfall in California's north valley averages twenty-three inches. So the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches.
    3. You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that? Why, that old wreck has a monster V8; besides, it's fifty years old and needs an overhaul.
    4. In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore, the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination.
    5. The New York steak, the Maine lobster, and the beef stroganoff at that restaurant are all exceptionally good. All the entrees are excellent.
    6. The number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of the past few years. Therefore there will be even more of them in use this coming year.
    7. Since the graduates of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and other Ivy League schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination than students from Central State, it follows that the Ivy League schools do more toward educating their students than Central State does.
    8. Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody else in California. You can bet he's had more than anybody in Connecticut!
    9. Although Max bled profusely before he died, there was no blood on the ground where his body was found. Therefore, he was killed somewhere else and brought here after the murder.
    10. When liquor was banned in 1920, hospitalizations for alcoholism and related diseases plummeted; in 1933, when Prohibition was repealed, alcohol-related illnesses rose sharply again. Legalization of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances.
    11. Relax. The kid's been delivering the paper for, how long? Three, four years maybe? And not once has she missed us. The paper will be here, just wait and see. She's just been delayed for some reason.
    12. First, it seems clear that even if there are occasional small dips in the consumption of petroleum, the general trend shows no sign of a real permanent decrease. Second, petroleum reserves are not being discovered as fast as petroleum is currently being consumed. From these two facts we can conclude that reserves will eventually be consumed and that the
    world will have to do without oil.

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    Solution Preview

    1. Probably true...this is the case given an unstated premise that posted signs are likely to be accurate in this area.

    2. c)...no information on variability, we're talking about an average here.

    3. Saying the car is unlikely to get 40 mpg given its engine size, overall size, age and condition. Probably true. This is based on additional knowledge of ...

    Solution Summary

    Analysis of the logical integrity of 12 different conclusions based on their corresponding set of premises. Examples of deductive and inductive validity.