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Posterior Probability

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An absent-minded nurse is to give Mr. Brown a pill each day. The probability that the nurse forgets to administer the pill is 2/3. If he receives the pill, the probability that Mr. Brown will die is 1/3. If he does not get his pill, the probability that he will die is 3/4. Mr. Brown dies. What is the probability that the nurse forgot to give him his pill?

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Solution Summary

The solution calculates posterior probability using Bayes theorem.

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Probability that the nurse forgets to administer the pill is 2/3
Probability that the nurse administers the pill is therefore equal to (1- 2/3) = 1/3

If Mr. Brown receives the pill, the ...

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