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Forecasting

Mathematics, topic: FORECASTING; from book Quantitative Methods. I need help for problem number 8. Please look at the attachment; I will need help for problem 8; in Chapter 15. (you will see the problem on two different file, file 1 and file 2, I also add some example on file 3). The second problem is on page 706, and I need help on problem 2;(you will see the problem on file 4, I also added some example on file 5 and file 6).

The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years since the coliseum opened. Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with a=.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a=.20 and B=.20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts, using MAD and average error, and indicate which seems to be the most accurate.

The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City's many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of .55, .33, and .12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?

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Solution Summary

This provides two examples of solving forecasting (quantitative methods) problems, including exponential smoothing forecasts, a linear trendline forecast, and moving average forecasts.

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