When thinking about a serial murderer, what types of variables would make crime forecasting a challenge?
Interesting question! I also attached two supplementary resources on serial killers that are very informative.
One approach is to take to this question is to look at the variables that crime forecasting targets, and then compare them to the characteristics/variables associated with a serial killer. Let's do that now.
1. When thinking about a serial murderer, what types of variables would make crime forecasting a challenge?
Crime forecasts often begin with a computer-generated crime map. The idea is that criminals are largely creatures of habit. For example, criminals will not necessarily return to the scene of a crime, but they probably will try to break into a house nearby. "A more sophisticated approach to short-term forecasting uses leading indicators," explains Wilpen Gorr, a professor of public policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. With his colleague Andreas Olligschlaeger, Gorr evaluated different approaches to crime forecasting for the U.S. Justice Department. One ...
When considering a serial murderer, this solution examines the types of variables that would make crime forecasting a challenge. Supplemented with a profile and characteristics of a serial killer to illustrate the unique challenges this population presents for crime forecasting.