Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

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Please refer to attached response, which is also presented below. I also added two other relevant documents that you may find helpful. I hope this helps and take care.

RESPONSE:

1. I need 4 scenarios for Odeon cinemas Uk to help forecast the future

From the literature on Odeon cinemas in the UK, I drew the following information about possible scenarios to help forecast the future:

Five scenarios: The Future
· Targeting an ageing population
· Can sequels boost the market?
· Consolidation
· Brand definition and product mix
· The UK Film Council and digital technology in channel development

Attracting new audiences

Multiplex operators and film producers have been accused of ignoring certain groups of cinemagoers. In particular there is a lack of art and foreign language films, as Hollywood blockbusters are given priority to screens. Although the over-35 age group makes up 52% of the UK population (Pullinger 1998 p.34), and comprises the empty nest households which traditionally have a higher level of disposable income, only 12% of this category visit the cinema four or more times each year, whilst 57% never go to the cinema.

More worrying are the results of a survey among cinemagoers in 1997 which found that whilst around 90% of those aged 16-35 believed that going to the cinema provided a good night's entertainment, only 56% of the 45-64 age group agreed with this view. For the over-65s the figure dropped to just 36% (Key Note 1997 p.30).

As multiplexes become larger, to remain successful operators must attract new audience groups. (http://www.mediasalles.it/crl_cosker.htm).
7.1 Quality of films

Although it is true that the development of multiplex cinemas has been a key factor in explaining the growth in cinema admissions, it is blockbuster movies that attract audiences. This was clearly ...