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# Forecasting Average Manufacturing

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The accompanying table shows average US manufacturing weekly hours over a period of 25 months.

a) Use simple exponential smoothing, with smoothing constant 0.3, to predict future values of thie series.
b) Graph the time series, together with forecasts for the next five months.
c) Use the method of Trigg and leach, with &#948;=0.1, to derive forecasts through simple exponential smoothing with adaptive smoothing constant.

#### Solution Preview

a) The simple exponential smoothing (SES) model where d denotes a "smoothing constant" (a number between 0 and 1) and S(t) denotes the value of the smoothed series at period t.

S(t) = dY(t) + (1-d) S(t-1)
S = 1 ...

#### Solution Summary

The expert examines forecasting average manufacturing.

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