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Bounded Rationality and Ecology of Focal Predictors

What is "bounded rationality"? Arthur suggests that decision makers conceive and nurture an "ecology of focal predictors" to deal with complexity of the unknown. Explain Arthur's ideas using the following scenario: Forecast the Dow Jones Average for the close of market trading on this day in one year from the current date. Would you put your entire life savings on your forecast? Allow a 5% margin of error to your forecast. Do you feel more confident in your forecast? Why? What if you do put your life savings on this and you are wrong? Respond to at least two of your classmates' postings.


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Bounded rationality is a "concept that decision makers (irrespective of their level of intelligence) have to work under three unavoidable constraints: (1) only limited, often unreliable, information is available regarding possible alternatives and their consequences, (2) human mind has only limited capacity to evaluate and process the information that is available, and (3) only a limited amount of time is available to ...