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The Use of Probability For Business Decisions

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1- In your work environment, identify a probability (either stated or assumed) that is a premise for making decisions and directing action. Potential candidates are customer or competitor behavior, technology or regulatory change, and "forces of nature" (severe weather, etc.) Describe how the probability has been used in decision-making. Has the probability proven to be accurate? (Be sure to identify the specific probability value, e.g. 20%. Avoid just saying that something will probably occur.)

2- Do you consider yourself a risk taker, risk-neutral, or risk avoider? Does your behavior vary depending on the situation or has it changed over time? How does your perception of probabilities contribute to your selection of risk behavior?

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As a door-to-door salesman, we have been taught that the average salesman makes one sale for every five potential customers that we come in contact with. The 20% average sales completion rate has been proven over the course of time, and through corporate research, which is ...

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