Simulate the average hourly number of sales at the Kard Shop
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Kard Shop
Hour No. Sales
9 60
10 70
11 47
Noon 53
1 80
2 70
3 50
4 60
Simulate the average hourly number of sales at the Kard Shop (Monte Carlo) for 50 hours.
How does this number compare to the expected value? Show whether the value converges
better if you sample for 1000 hours?
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Kard Shop
Hour No. Sales Simulate the average hourly number of sales at the Kard Shop (Monte Carlo) for 50 hours.
9 60 How does this number compare to the expected value? Show whether the value converges better if you sample for 1000 hours?
10 70
11 47
12 53
1 80
2 70
3 50
4 60
Hour No Sales (x) p(x) Cumulative p(x) x * p(x)
9 60 0.1224 0.1224 7.3469
10 70 0.1429 0.2653 10.0000
11 47 0.0959 0.3612 4.5082
12 53 0.1082 0.4694 5.7327
1 80 0.1633 0.6327 13.0612
2 70 0.1429 0.7755 10.0000
3 50 0.1020 0.8776 5.1020
4 60 0.1224 1.0000 7.3469
Sums = 1 63.0980
Random Number Sales
0.50 80
0.93 60
0.87 50
0.71 70
0.86 50
0.75 70
0.95 60
0.09 60
0.95 60
0.55 80
0.63 80
0.35 47
0.66 70
0.02 60
0.85 50
0.37 53
0.87 50
0.69 70
0.19 70
0.58 80
0.64 70
0.33 47
0.68 70
0.66 70
0.91 60
0.37 53
0.66 70
0.89 60
0.96 60
0.43 53
0.82 50
0.43 53
1.00 60
0.95 60
0.87 50
0.07 60
0.05 60
0.52 80
0.92 60
0.58 80
0.28 47
0.19 70
0.58 80
0.33 47
0.74 70
0.26 70
0.69 70
0.06 60
0.22 70
0.90 60
Mean Hourly Sales= 62.8
Expected Hourly Sales = 63.10 We see that the two figures compare well for the current simulation.
Yes, the results would be much better if we simulated 1000 hours instead of 50 hours.
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