Purchase Solution

Time Series: seasonality, trend-seasonal model

Not what you're looking for?

Ask Custom Question

Question 1 (30 pts.): The Excel file attendance.xls contains the daily attendance data at a theme park for a period of four weeks in summer. The park manager wants to use these data to make forecasts for the following summer week.

a) Make a time-series plot of the data. Is there a trend? Is there seasonality in the data? What is the seasonality period? (5 pts.)
b) Fit a trend-seasonal model to the data and make forecasts for the 7 days of the next week. Do the forecasts appear reasonable? (5 pts.)
c) Fit only a seasonal model to the data and make forecasts for the next week. Do the forecasts appear reasonable? Which model would you choose? Answer based on the reasonableness of the forecasts and the MAPE values for the two models. (8 pts.)
d) Interpret the seasonal indexes for Saturday and Sunday from part (c) in words. Also explain what the deseasonalized (seasonally adjusted) series means. In particular, explain why in Week 2, although the Saturday attendance (12,714) was higher than the Sunday attendance (11,977), actually the theme park did better on Sunday than on Saturday. (12 pts.)

Week Day Attendance
1 Mon. 4392
1 Tue. 4428
1 Wed. 5143
1 Thu. 6510
1 Fri. 7175
1 Sat. 13796
1 Sun. 11791
2 Mon. 4440
2 Tue. 5072
2 Wed. 5553
2 Thu. 6250
2 Fri. 7119
2 Sat. 12714
2 Sun. 11977
3 Mon. 4523
3 Tue. 5021
3 Wed. 5530
3 Thu. 6279
3 Fri. 7105
3 Sat. 13116
3 Sun. 11982
4 Mon. 3594
4 Tue. 4364
4 Wed. 5732
4 Thu. 6648
4 Fri. 7795
4 Sat. 12937
4 Sun. 11425

Attachments
Purchase this Solution

Solution Summary

The solution constructs a forecasting model using time series analysis.

Purchase this Solution


Free BrainMass Quizzes
Measures of Central Tendency

This quiz evaluates the students understanding of the measures of central tendency seen in statistics. This quiz is specifically designed to incorporate the measures of central tendency as they relate to psychological research.

Terms and Definitions for Statistics

This quiz covers basic terms and definitions of statistics.

Know Your Statistical Concepts

Each question is a choice-summary multiple choice question that presents you with a statistical concept and then 4 numbered statements. You must decide which (if any) of the numbered statements is/are true as they relate to the statistical concept.

Measures of Central Tendency

Tests knowledge of the three main measures of central tendency, including some simple calculation questions.