The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year. Use time series decomposition to forecast quarterly sales for the next year.
To forecast the demand, following steps are required.
First , we compute the seasonality Indexes
a. Segregate the volume quarter wise
b Calculate overall quarter average
c. Calculate quarter averages
d. calculate seasonal Index = Quarter average / Overall Quarter average
Year Quareterly Sales Annual
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
1 160.00 195.00 150.00 140.00 645.00
2 215.00 240.00 205.00 190.00 850.00
Total 375.00 435.00 355.00 330.00 1495.00
Overall Quarter Average 186.88
Quarter ...
Solution Summary
Shows how to forecast for a time series involving both trend and seasonality.
... II Regression analysis is used to forecast revenues and expenses. ... This explains the forecasting methods (eg, seasonal, Delphi, technological, time series),. ...
... Period Calculation (Adjusted with seasonal effect) Forecast 2000 Q1 ... I would the forecasts of revenues computed in ... of ice cream stores to describe time series. ...
... d. long range forecasts. ... a time series b. are the differences between actual and forecast values c ... should be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model. ...
... Slide 39 39 Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting. ... It is an attempt to develop forecasts through group ... then they combine their conclusions into a forecast. ...
... The solution constructs a forecasting model using time series... Answer based on the reasonableness of the forecasts and the ... a) Make a time-series plot of the data ...
... Use time series decomposition to forecast quarterly sales for the next ... Solution _ Sales Forecasting. A summary of the sales forecast using eight quarter data ...
...Forecasts are essential for every business organization for the ... and now the task is to forecast the demand ... section for the purpose of forecasting or predicting ...
... Simple Moving Averages-forecasts future values based on ... widely used where repeated forecast required-uses ... average form of time series forecasting-efficient to ...
