# Time series forecasting problem

Problem (see attached file)

we are going time series techniques to predict non-retail sales for the next three months. Use the data in the file non retail time series for these exercises.

1. From the graph of the non retail sales data does there appear to be a seasonal component? If yes, what number of seasons do there appear to be in each set?

2. Compare the MSD for forecasts using Trend Analysis with that for Decomposition. What conclusion do you draw?

3. What are the values of the seasonal indices for decomposition? Interpret these values. Do they make sense with respect to the graph in question 1?

4. What are the forecast values for months 13,14, and 15?

5. Can you forecast for month's 16, 17, and 18? Comment on the forecasts with respect to potential accuracy.

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#### Solution Preview

Please see the attached file.

we are going time series techniques to predict non-retail sales for the next three months. Use the data in the file non retail time series for these exercises.

1. From the graph of the non retail sales data does there appear to be a seasonal component? If yes, what number of seasons do there appear to be in each set?

There appear to be 3 seasons, total 4 set of values.

2. Compare the MSD for forecasts using Trend Analysis with that for Decomposition. What conclusion do you draw?

MSD ...

#### Solution Summary

This posting contains solution to following problem on time series forecasting.