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# Risk and Return: Expected, Deviation, Probabilities

7.3 Expected returns: You have chosen biology as your college major because you would like to be a medical doctor. However, you find that the probability of being accepted into medical school is about 10 percent. If you are accepted into medical school, then your starting salary when you graduate will be \$300,000 per year. However, if you are not accepted, then you would choose to work in a zoo, where you will earn \$40,000 per year. Without considering the additional educational years or the time value of money, what is your expected starting salary as well as the standard deviation of that starting salary?

7.15 Calculating the variance and standard deviation: Kate recently invested in real estate with the intention of selling the property one year from today. She has modeled the returns on that investment based on three economic scenarios. She believes that if the economy stays healthy, then her investment will generate a 30 percent return. However, if the economy softens, as predicted, the return will be 10 percent, while the return will be -25 percent if the economy slips into a recession. If the probabilities of the healthy, soft, and recessionary states are 0.4, 0.5, and 0.1, respectively, then what are the expected return and the standard deviation for Kate's investment?

7.20 Portfolios with more than one asset: Given the returns and probabilities for the three possible states listed here, calculate the covariance between the returns of Stock A and Stock B. For convenience, assume that the expected returns of Stock A and Stock B are 11.75 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

Probability
Return(A)
Return(B)

Good
0.35
0.30
0.50

OK
0.50
0.10
0.10

Poor
0.15
-0.25
-0.30

7.27 In order to fund her retirement, Glenda requires a portfolio with an expected return of 12 percent per year over the next 30 years. She has decided to invest in Stocks 1, 2, and 3, with 25 percent in Stock 1, 50 percent in Stock 2, and 25 percent in Stock 3. If Stocks 1 and 2 have expected returns of 9 percent and 10 percent per year, respectively, then what is the minimum expected annual return for Stock 3 that will enable Glenda to achieve her investment requirement?

#### Solution Summary

The attached Excel solution contains step-by-step formulas to show how to calculate mean, variance, and co-variance.

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