Calculating the asked probability values
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Using the following project information (Times are estimates in weeks):
Activity Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time Immediate Predecessor(s) Variance Expected Time
A 3 6 9 none 1.000 6.00
B 3 5 7 A 0.444 5.00
C 4 7 12 A 1.778 7.33
D 4 8 10 B 1.000 7.67
E 5 10 16 C 3.361 10.17
F 3 4 5 D,E 0.111 4.00
G 3 6 8 D,E 0.694 5.83
H 5 6 10 F 0.694 6.33
I 5 8 11 G 1.000 8.00
J 3 3 3 H,I 0.000 3.00
The critical path is A-C-E-G-I-J.
(a) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 38 weeks.
(b) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 42 weeks.
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Solution describes the steps to calculate the desired probability values in the given case.
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(a) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 38 weeks.
Expected time to complete the project (A-C-E-G-I-J )=sum of expected times of activities on critical path
=6.00+7.33+10.17+5.83+8.00+3.00
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- BEng (Hons) , Birla Institute of Technology and Science, India
- MSc (Hons) , Birla Institute of Technology and Science, India
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