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Probability: Earthquake Example Problem

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Based on the historical earthquake activity provided below, what is the probability that an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 or greater will strike Los Angeles in the year 2010 and beyond. Please use at least 5 statistical concepts that you may find applicable to the problem. Concepts I have studied: Standard deviation, Probability CDF and/or PDF, Poisson, probability distribution table, uniform average rate, Approximation.

Los Angeles Area Earthquakes (M4.8-M6.7) Since 1920
Year Magnitude
1933 6.4
1938 5.2
1941 4.8
1952 5.2
1969 5.1
1970 5.2
1971 6.7
1973 5.9
1979 5.2
1981 6
1987 5.9
1988 5
1989 5
1990 5.3
1991 5.8
1994 6.7

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