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Fault Tree Analysis

Assume the probability of a tire blowout is 0.102% per 50,000 miles of use and that a person travels 13,000 miles per year in a car. Assume that the probability of loss of control is 30% if the blowout occurs on the front tires and 15% for the rear tires. If control is lost, the probability is 50% of veering to the right and 50% of veering to the left. If it goes left, the car spends 1 sec crossing the one lane of oncoming traffic (1500 vehicles/hour). Either way it goes, it ends up on the roadside, with a 15% chance of hitting a barrier or tree, if not hit by oncoming traffic. Assume there is a 15% chance of death if the car hits a barrier or tree and a 50% chance of death if hit by oncoming traffic. Calculate the probability of being killed per year in this type of accident.

Solution Preview

Probability of tire blowout per 13000 miles per year = 13000/50000of 0.102%=. 02652%

Probability of tire blow out due to loss of control
if the blowout occurs on the front tires =30%of .02652=0.007956%

Probability of tire blow out due to loss of control,
if the blow ...

Solution Summary

This solution conducts a fault tree analysis to the fate of the car and provides probabilities to each situation experienced. It also calculates the total probability of being killed per year in the specific type of accident.

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