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Conditional Probabilities and Malaria

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A medical test for malaria is subject to some error. Given a person who has malaria, the
probability that the test will fail to reveal the malaria is 0.06. Given a person who does not
have malaria, the test will correctly identify that the person does not have malaria with
probability 0.91. In a particular area, 20% of the population suffers from malaria.

(a) If someone has malaria, what is the probability that the test will identify that person
as having malaria?
(b) Copy the following joint probability table to your answer papers and fill it in. (see attached file for table)

Suppose that Richard Rice, a resident of the area, decides to take the test for malaria. If his
test results indicate that he has malaria, what is the probability that he actually has malaria

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Solution Summary

The solution gives detailed steps on calculating conditional probabilities using the example of malaria.

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a. P(the test will identify that person as having malaria given someone has malaria)=1-0.06=0.94

b. Has malaria ...

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