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Coincidence and Probability

The Spanish patients, two men and two women, were elderly and very ill. All four had undergone routine dialysis at the Hospital de la Princesa. Soon after, they began sweating and vomiting, some of them in excruciating pain. They died within a few hours of receiving treatment.

Nothing seemed exceptional about the deaths of those old, sick patients on dialysis, even though four deaths had occurred in four days at the same place. Hospital officials notified the manufacturers of the equipment involved, as dictated by protocol. But no one paid the incident much attention - until the following week, when people started dying in Valencia. "

At what point does the possibility that an event is more than coincidence become obvious? How can quantitative analysis assist in this realization?

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The possibility that an event is more than a coincidence is very difficult to predict. Usually this decision lies on the judgment of the person making the decision. Thus it can vary from one person to the next. There is no right or wrong answer. Some person might need that incident to happen at 10 ...

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