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Statistical Analysis of Poll Results

POLL: OBAMA, MCCAIN LEAD IN N.H. HUCKABEE NOT SEEING GAINS FROM IOWA WIN

ALL EYES ON NEW HAMPSHIRE; TOP CONTENDERSâ?? HOPES PIVOT ON FIRST PRIMARY

ELECTION 2008: How the voters upended pollsters

Pollsters the most shocked at New Hampshire outcome

Read all of the articles, noting when the articles were written, which candidate they say is ahead, and the margin of error. Then answer the following questions.

What went wrong with the polls?
How could it be that all the highly educated and highly paid statisticians were wrong about who would win the Democratic primary?

Explain in your own words what is meant by the statistical dead heat and the 5% margin of error mentioned in the first article.

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In the poll mentioned in the first article, Obama led Clinton 33% to 31%, but the poll had a 5% margin of error, which means a 95% confidence interval for Obama's support was [28%, 38%] while that of Clinton was [26%, 36%]. Since these confidence intervals ...

Solution Summary

We apply tools of statistics to analyze results from polls of the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, and why pollsters picked the wrong candidate.

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