Probability: Stock Market
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Over the 48 years from 1950 through 1997, the stock market has gone up in the month of January for 31 times; it has gone up for the whole year for 36 times, and it has gone up both for the year and in January for 29 times.
1) Based on historical data, what is the probability the stock market will go up in January?
2) Based on historical data, what is the probability the stock market will go up for the whole year?
3) What is the conditional probability that the stock market wil go up for the year given the stock market has already gone up in the month of January?
4) Are the stock market's January performance and its annual performance independent events? What is the meaning of this conclusion to a financial analyst? Please use statistical analysis (not simple verbal narration!) to justify your answer.
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Over the 48 years from 1950 through 1997, the stock market has gone up in the month of January for 31 times; it has gone up for the whole year for 36 times, and it has gone up both for the year and in January for 29 times.
1) Based on historical data, what is the probability the stock market will go up in January?
Probability (stock market will go up in January) = No of years in which the stock market goes up in January / Total no of years= 31 / 48
Answer: Probability = 31 / 48
2) Based on historical data, what is the probability the stock market will go up for the whole year?
Probability (stock market will go up for the whole year) = No of years in which the stock market goes up for the whole year / Total no of years= 36 / 48
Answer: Probability = 36 / 48
3) What is the conditional probability that the stock market will go up for the year given the ...
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