Bayes's rule
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In a population of 1,000 athletes, suppose 100 are illegally using testosterone. Of the users, suppose 50 would test positive. Of the nonusers, suppose 9 would test positive.
a) Given that the athlete is a user, find the probablility that a drug test would yield a positive result.
b) Given that the athlete is a nonuser, fine the probability that a drug test for testosterone would yield a negative result.
c) If an athlete tests positive, use Bayes's Rule to find the probability that the athlete is really doping.
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Total = 1000, Users = 100, Nonusers = 900, Positive and User = 50, Positive and Nonuser = 9
Therefore, positive = 50 + 9 = 59
Negative = 1000 - 59 = 941
Negative ...
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