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Predicting Iran's future

The TED talk given by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita entitled "Three predictions on the future of Iran". During this discussion, De Mesquita uses game theory to discuss the dynamics of interest aggregation and public policy formulation in Iran. De Mesquita then provides a prediction for where he believes Iran's policy will go. 1) Do you believe mathematical models can assess how parties and interests groups are aggregated? 2) What do you feel are the strengths and weaknesses of De Mesquita's assessment? 3) What are your thoughts on Iran's future policies towards the West and nuclear weapons?

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In essence, mathematical models can be very helpful in assisting an individual in developing an assessment of how parties and interest groups are aggregated, but mathematical models alone will not be able to give an accurate calculation of how groups will be aggregated in the future. The sciences of probability and statistical analysis, will give you a great deal of information in which to ...