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    Global Population Scenarios

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    Read "Taking the Long View: Scenario Planning Puts the Future into Perspective" from The Rocky Mountain Institute Newsletter, Fall/Winter 1995. I attached A PDF version of this article

    This article will introduce you to the concept of scenario planning.
    ? Develop three scenario overviews relating to global population growth -- one disastrous, one hopeful, and one complete wildcard (the reading will explain about wildcards).
    Cite the environmental impacts of each scenario. Be creative. Be brief, but provide enough detail so that your scenarios represent well-thought-out future possibilities

    Project Assignment
    Select one area that you believe is of serious concern to the United States and to the welfare of this and future generations. The areas to be considered are:
    1 Energy usage (electricity)
    2 Water usage
    3 Solid Waste
    4 Hazardous Materials Generation (chemical cleaners, personal care products, lawn/car care products)
    5 General Consumption (food, material goods, gasoline)
    6 Forest
    Project Assignment
    As mentioned in the lesson, issues as widespread, long-term, and "invisible" as global air pollution are sometimes hard for the public to understand on a personal-impact level. As a specialist with the EPA, you are working to increase public awareness on air pollution. The best way to increase public awareness is through television advertising.
    Your team will assume the role of an advertising team whose task it is to create a fifteen- to thirty-second television "spot" (advertisement) as a means of increasing public awareness on one of the three air pollution issues explored in this lesson. Be creative and have fun with this.
    a. Write final script
    b. Describe or create the graphics
    c. Review and edit
    d. Create the final document.
    e. Submit final graphic.
    Present your ad as a storyboard, the scripted language aligned with a description of the graphic images it corresponds to.
    For example: The ad might open with the spoken statement, "We have only one Earth" in a child's voice, and on the screen would be a child's drawing of the Earth. The storyboard would show this scripted language alongside a sketch or description of the on-screen graphic. The storyboard would depict the flow of spoken words and on-screen graphics in this way. Or, if you'd like to go one step further, create your spot as a PowerPoint presentation.

    Project Assignment
    So far, you have tackled assignments on existing issues of air pollution, global warming, and population explosion. For this particular assignment, you have to design a hypothetical sustainable community and develop an overview of its sustainable systems involving any two of the following elements:
    1. Transportation
    2. Water/sewage
    3. Energy
    4. Solid waste
    5. Residential/commercial building
    6. Food production/distribution
    Describe how each sustainable element works as a "closed loop" system and how the elements interact with one another. Include any relevant technological, economic, political, or social forces that support and enable each system.

    For example, when designing an overview for water, you could consider the following questions:
    • Where does the community's water come from and what happens to it following its use?
    • What technology is involved in making the water system sustainable?
    • What social behaviors are required, either voluntarily or by regulation, to make this system work?

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    Solution Preview

    The primary things you should note about the article are the "predetermined elements" and the "critical uncertainties." Make sure you understand these concepts. Predetermined elements are things that we can take as given, such as the low birth rates of developed nations. These are unlikely to rise in the foreseeable future. Critical uncertainties are things that we can't know, due to the unpredictable nature of reality, but will have dramatic effects on the outcome of the scenario. In this case, we could consider the high birth rates of undeveloped nations, and the technology related to food ...