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H1N1 Flue Shot

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Research statistical data that requires a decision. Use probability concepts to formulate your decision.
Explain your research methods and process for limiting the uncertainity in the decision.
Address:
1) how you applied concpets to formulate your decision.
2) Include appropriate probability concepts and your application to find resulting data to limit uncertainity in this decision.
3)Identify each outcome from your statistical analysis, providing a rationale for each.
4) Identify tradeoffs between accuracy and precision required by various probability concepts and the effect on your data.
5)Include the decision you made based on statistical data.

Research:
H1N1 US Rate: 6.97/100,000 / for my age group 25 - 49
Hospitalization rate: 1.1/100,000 / for my age group 25 - 49
US Death Rate: 124/for my age group 25 - 49

Shot prevents flu 70 - 90% in healthy persons under 65
30 - 70 % effective in preventing hospitalization for flu
Zero percent chance to get the flu from the shot

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Decision: To take the 2009 H1N1 flu shot or not

2009 H1N1, popularly known as "swine flu" is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. First detected in April 2009 in United States, thus virus is spreading from human-to-human worldwide and has been signaled as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The 2009 H1N1 virus is contagious and spreads from person to person through coughing or sneezing by people affected by the virus. It can spread by touching something infected by the virus. Although most of the time the illness associated with new H1N1 virus is mild in nature, there have been instances of hospitalization and deaths occurring due to this virus.

Currently there is no vaccine available to protect someone against the 2009 H1N1 virus. However, Government is making efforts to develop such vaccine and it is likely that the vaccine will be available in near term. Thus, I have to take a decision whether I should take the 2009 H1N1 vaccine or take the risk of being affected by the 2009 H1N1 virus.

Research

To take my decision on whether I should go for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine or not, the first task is to collect the data about the severity of the virus and amount of damage which can be done is such situations. The data for the decision-making is collected from the various sources such as Center for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) and Census.

Chart 1: Incidence of 2009 H1N1 Flu

The first set of data collected is about the incidence of 2009 H1N1 flu in individuals in US. The data is presented ...

Solution Summary

The solution examines the statistics surrounding the H1N1 flu shot. The outcomes of the statistical analysis is provided.

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See Also This Related BrainMass Solution

Overview on Influenza Vaccines

Influenza Vaccines

- H and N strains (if there are more)
- vaccine types
- disadvantages of vaccines and risk of vaccines

Just need 1 or 2 page for group assingment. It is not for final.

You can use those cites.
Sources about influenza vaccines:

CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (last update 10 June 2015) Influenza (Flu). Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.cdc.gov/flu/.The CDC influenza Web site is an excellent source for information about the flu. The following links on "Prevention-Flu Vaccine" page are relevant to your topic: Vaccine Production, Selection, Vaccine Advances, and Types of Influenza Vaccines.

NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) (last update 07 October 2014) Influenza (Flu). Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.niaid.nih.gov/topics/flu/Pages/default.aspx . The following sections include information relevant to your topic: Vaccine Research (link in the NIAID Role in Vaccine Research box), What's New, and Congressional Testimony (Feb. 3, 2015 Recent Testimony to Congress).

NIAID (14 Jan. 2011) New Vaccine Technologies. Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.niaid.nih.gov/topics/Flu/Research/vaccineResearch/Pages/Technologies.aspx

Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009-H1N1 Influenza (August 7, 2009), Executive Office of the President, President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/PCAST_H1N1_Report.pdf

FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) (18 Jan. 2013) The Evolution, and Revolution, of Flu Vaccines. Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.fda.gov/ForConsumers/ConsumerUpdates/ucm336267.htm

Sources for general information about vaccines:

NIH (National Institutes of Health) Understanding Vaccines, What They Are and How They Work, NIH Publication No. 08-4219 (January 2008). Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.niaid.nih.gov/topics/vaccines/documents/undvacc.pdf.

PBS Frontline (21 March 2015) "The Vaccine War". Retrieved 12 July 2015 from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/vaccines/view/?autoplay. This program discusses the science, politics, and social issues related to getting vaccinated for infectious diseases.

*A quote by Dr. Peter Palese of Mount Sinai Medical Center in Sanders, L. (27 February 2010) Of Swine and Men, Scientists study H1N1's past to predict what the virus has in store, Science News 177(5)22-26.

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