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H1N1 Flue Shot

Research statistical data that requires a decision. Use probability concepts to formulate your decision.
Explain your research methods and process for limiting the uncertainity in the decision.
1) how you applied concpets to formulate your decision.
2) Include appropriate probability concepts and your application to find resulting data to limit uncertainity in this decision.
3)Identify each outcome from your statistical analysis, providing a rationale for each.
4) Identify tradeoffs between accuracy and precision required by various probability concepts and the effect on your data.
5)Include the decision you made based on statistical data.

H1N1 US Rate: 6.97/100,000 / for my age group 25 - 49
Hospitalization rate: 1.1/100,000 / for my age group 25 - 49
US Death Rate: 124/for my age group 25 - 49

Shot prevents flu 70 - 90% in healthy persons under 65
30 - 70 % effective in preventing hospitalization for flu
Zero percent chance to get the flu from the shot


Solution Preview

See the attached file. Thanks
Decision: To take the 2009 H1N1 flu shot or not

2009 H1N1, popularly known as "swine flu" is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. First detected in April 2009 in United States, thus virus is spreading from human-to-human worldwide and has been signaled as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The 2009 H1N1 virus is contagious and spreads from person to person through coughing or sneezing by people affected by the virus. It can spread by touching something infected by the virus. Although most of the time the illness associated with new H1N1 virus is mild in nature, there have been instances of hospitalization and deaths occurring due to this virus.

Currently there is no vaccine available to protect someone against the 2009 H1N1 virus. However, Government is making efforts to develop such vaccine and it is likely that the vaccine will be available in near term. Thus, I have to take a decision whether I should take the 2009 H1N1 vaccine or take the risk of being affected by the 2009 H1N1 virus.


To take my decision on whether I should go for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine or not, the first task is to collect the data about the severity of the virus and amount of damage which can be done is such situations. The data for the decision-making is collected from the various sources such as Center for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) and Census.

Chart 1: Incidence of 2009 H1N1 Flu

The first set of data collected is about the incidence of 2009 H1N1 flu in individuals in US. The data is presented ...

Solution Summary

The solution examines the statistics surrounding the H1N1 flu shot. The outcomes of the statistical analysis is provided.