Explore BrainMass
Share

To Forecast or Not?

This content was STOLEN from BrainMass.com - View the original, and get the already-completed solution here!

Could you please help me with these questions?

The Federal Reserve is the arbiter of interest rate policy in the U.S., and as such, members of the Fed board can send shivers down the spines of investors with a single misinterpreted word or offhand remark. Recently, the Central Bank started issuing more forward-looking guidance on interest rate policy, but board members disagree on whether that prognostication is good or bad for the economy.

In this article "How transparent should the Federal Reserve be?" {http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/26/news/economy/federal_reserve_monetary_policy/index.htm?iid=SF_BN_River }
Which board member's opinion you agree with (or agree more with) and why with at least three well-supported reasons (and references sources).

© BrainMass Inc. brainmass.com October 17, 2018, 11:15 am ad1c9bdddf
https://brainmass.com/economics/the-time-value-of-money/deciding-forecast-forecast-531031

Solution Preview

It is difficult to say which board member's opinion you agree with (or agree more with).

That being said, there are two arguments here but not a lot of difference. Both President of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard and Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin agree with the course of the Fed in recent years: low interest rates and easy money policy in the face of economic recession. Their disagreement appears to be on the explicit setting of time limits for interest rates. Bullard doesn't wish to promise low interest rates for the future, while Raskin wishes to send the signal to the markets that interest rate policy will continue as it is for the foreseeable future.

The arguments in favor of Raskin's viewpoint is mainly that it will ...

Solution Summary

The solution discusses the different board member's opinions and which one is agreed with more and why.

$2.19
Similar Posting

EBBD forecast

EBBD EMAIL - for Internal Use Only
To: You
From: Danny Wilco <dwilco@ebbd.com>
Subject: Re: Forecasting at EBBD
The Management Team is all for your efforts to investigate EBBD's forecasting situation. We want you to thoroughly analyze what we are doing, what other forecasting methods and techniques are available, and make a recommendation on how we should proceed. We are particularly interested in how to improve our short term forecasting on an annual, quarterly, and monthly basis. We also would like to know how we could do longer term forecasting, say over two or three years. And we want to know how we can generate quarterly inflation forecasts.
The Management Team wants to know
• What are the various methods that we should use?
• Who will do the forecasting?
• How will the forecasting methods be implemented?
• Why should EBBD spend any money on this new methodology? Why do we care about improving our forecasting and why is it worth the costs to improve it?
The report should provide an initial section on the background of the situation, assumptions that we need to make, discussion of your analysis of various forecasting methods, and then a recommendation with a justification as to why you are making the recommendation.
One more thing - the Management Team might want you to make an oral presentation. So you should also prepare a draft version of a PowerPoint presentation. This does not need to be a finished product, but a draft version.
The written report should be comprehensive and articulate. Send me the report and the draft PowerPoint when you have them finished. Let me know if you have any questions along the way.
~DW, VP LogOps.
Learning Wizard
Use the readings in the Background to familiarize yourself with forecasting and forecasting methods. You should also search for additional information pertaining to forecasting in logistics and distribution.
Specific Information you need to identify to use in your report:
• Why is forecasting important in a distribution company? What is it you are specifically forecasting and what is this used for?
• Why is forecasting accuracy important? How accurate does a forecast need to be?
• What is the difference between forecasting for existing product lines and for new products?
• Why should companies spend time and money to improve forecasting accuracy?
• How should a company use different methods but yet integrate these methods?
• How does strategic planning fit in with forecasting (at least for long term forecasting/planning)?
You should know the answers to these questions and use this information in your Report to Danny Wilco.
Using the background information about EBBD's forecasting situation and the information you obtain from the background readings and your research, write a report to Danny Wilco, addressing the questions that he posed. Then develop a draft Powerpoint presentation.
Assignment Expectations of the Written Report - Be sure to write this report to your boss, Wilco.
The report should thoroughly address these aspects in depth and breadth:
• Problem situation: clearly elucidate the current situation at EBBD
• Assumptions: assumptions that need to be made and critical evaluation
• Evidence: identifying information about different forecasting methods relevant to the problem
• Possible solutions: combinations of different methods and techniques to meet the requirements
• Recommendations: which methods and techniques are best for which specified needs
• Justification & Explanation: clear reasoning as to why the recommendations were made
• Writing style & Organization: well-formed sentences and paragraphs, well organized with flow of reason, and good use of language that pertain to concepts and terminology
• Use of references & Citations: at least four references. Appropriate use of APA Style is required in this paper.
Expectations of the Draft Presentation
The draft PowerPoint should address these aspects:
• Organization: the deck has a cover slide and at least 4 content slides, and information is arranged in understandable order
• Content: the deck uses bullet points that articulate and interpret key points of the report and shows relevant data, charts, graphs; notes are used in Note section of slides and possible themes of the presentation are suggested.

View Full Posting Details