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Simulation

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Seventy-five percent of calls arriving at a help line can be handled by the person who answers the phone, but the remaining 25% of them will need to be referred to someone else. Assume that every call requires one minute of attention by the person who answers the phone (either to answer the question or to figure out how the referral should be handled). Calls that are referred need an additional amount of time, as given in the table below.

Time Required Probability
3 minutes 0.25
5 minutes 0.35
10 minutes 0.40

Callers are served on a first come, first served basis, and are put on hold until the line is free.

a. Use the random numbers to simulate what happens to 10 callers.

.82 .39 .16 .79 .56 .62 .13 .04 .42 .81
.85 .32 .64 .90 .73 .02 .76 .03 .86 .67

b. What percentage of your callers needs to be referred? Of those who had to be referred, what is the average referral time?

c. Develop an Excel program and simulate this problem for 25 calls. Compare your results with the ones in part a and report the differences.

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Module 04 - Session Long Project

For the third and final run of this simulation, enter your decisions taking into account the changes in strategy you proposed in Module Three. Then in a 2-3 page paper discuss

Your company's performance in this run.

How it compares to the last run.

Why you think you did better or worse.

By this time you know the drill! Ground your analysis in solid business theory and principles, and support your conclusions with data.

Module 05 - Session Long Project

Now that you have run this simulation three times, I would like for you to evaluate the experience. First, I would like you to focus on the actual process you went through as you ran the simulation. Specifically, I'd like you to consider the following questions:

What did you learn from this exercise?

How did your strategies and decisions change?

What business theory(s), model(s), or analytical tools were most useful to you in determining your approach to the decisions you made?

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