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# Sensitivity Analysis: Weather Prediction

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Consider the following problem:

The Smith family annual reunion is to be held on the first Saturday in May. There is a probability of cool or rainy weather on that day. The family has reserved free space at a local park for their event. For an additional charge, one of the pavilions that will provide shelter can be rented. If the weather is bad and the shelter is not rented, then the event may need to be canceled and family members will have spent the money for travel and preparations needlessly. Should the family spend the extra money to rent the shelter, even though it may not be needed?

Perform a sensitivity analysis for the above problem. Include the following details in your paper:

•One parameter sensitivity analysis

•Identify how the best alternative and expected payoff change as the variable changes