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Identifying the Best Projection Method

1. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other two years are each given the weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?

2. Develop a trend line for the demand of fertilizer in above problem.

3. Three different forecasts were developed for the demand for fertilizer. (3 year moving average, weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which would you use? Explain

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Trend Line Projection
Year Actual value X Forecast Error
1 4 0 3.5 0.5
2 6 1 3.542 2.458
3 4 2 3.584 0.416
4 5 3 3.626 1.374
5 ...

Solution Summary

This solution gives a step-by-step instruction on how to apply forecasting models to project a given data. The based projection method was identified based on appropriate statistical measures.

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