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analyzing statements

Consider the following statement by a project analyst: "I analyzed my project using scenarios for the base case, best case, and worst case. I computed break-evens and degrees of operating leverage. I did sensitivity analysis and simulation analysis. I computed NPV, IRR, payback, AAR, and PI. In the end, I have over a hundred different estimates and am more confused than ever. I would have been better off just sticking with my first estimate and going by my gut reaction." Critique this statement.

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Hi there,
<br>I disagree with this statement. While it may be easier in the beginning to go with the first estimate, in the long run, it may be less efficient and may not lead to the best decision. Also, if ...