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The Dividend Discount Model and the CAPM

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CAPM and Cost of Equity Estimation

1) What is your opinion to the questions below?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a linear model that can be used to estimate a company's cost of equity and determine a stock's required rate of return. The required rate of return is one input into the Dividend Discount Model, a model used to determine the value of a company's common stock. There are a several varieties of the Dividend Discount Model including the zero growth model, the constant growth model, and the differential growth model. An analyst needs to use his or her best judgment to determine which model variety should be used to value a company's common stock. For example, if the analysts forecasts that the company's dividends will grow at a fixed rate of 5% per year forever, then the constant growth model should be used. If, on the other hand, the analyst forecasts that the company's dividends will grow at a 15% growth rate for the next three years and then growth at a constant rate of 7% per year, then the differential growth model should be used. As you can see, there's a lot of estimation involved in applying the Dividend Discount Model. Because of this situation, it's useful to conduct a sensitivity analysis.

References:

Penman, S.H. (1997, November 5). A synthesis of equity valuation techniques and the terminal value calculation for the dividend discount model. Retrieved from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=38720

Womack, K.L, & Zhang, Y. (2003, December 19). Understanding risk and return, the capm, and the fama-french three-factor model. Retrieved from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=481881

Required:

Below are some questions for discussion.

1. Please apply the Dividend Discount Model to the common stock of a publicly-traded company of your choosing. Based off your results from the model, state whether you believe that the company's common stock is currently overvalued, overvalued, or fully valued. Please be sure to state your assumptions and justify your results.

2. Beta is one of the inputs into the CAPM. How's a stock's beta determined? Is beta a good measure of risk? Why or why not?

3. What are some competing models to the CAPM to determine a company's cost of equity? Compare and contrast them to the CAPM.

You must answer one of the above questions. You do not need to answer all three questions. You must also respond to at least two peers' posts over two separate days. Please try to add information not previously discussed by others. Please provide factual information (not merely opinions) backed up by details or examples. Your comments should be in your own words and include references in APA format.

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Solution Preview

CAPM and Cost of Equity Estimation
1) What is your opinion to the questions below?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a linear model that can be used to estimate a company's cost of equity and determine a stock's required rate of return. The required rate of return is one input into the Dividend Discount Model, a model used to determine the value of a company's common stock. There are a several varieties of the Dividend Discount Model including the zero growth model, the constant growth model, and the differential growth model. An analyst needs to use his or her best judgment to determine which model variety should be used to value a company's common stock. For example, if the analysts forecasts that the company's dividends will grow at a fixed rate of 5% per year forever, then the constant growth model should be used. If, on the other hand, the analyst forecasts that the company's dividends will grow at a 15% growth rate for the next three years and then growth at a constant rate of 7% per ...

Solution Summary

This solution briefly discusses each of the three questions presented as related to the dividend discount model and the capital asset pricing model. Resources are included for student expansion.

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See attached file for full problem description.

The beta of a stock is 1.2 and at the beginning of the year is selling for $55. The expected rate of return on the market portfolio is 9%, while the risk free rate of return is 3%. The stock is expected to pay a dividend of $2 at the end of the year. If the capital market is in CAPM equilibrium, what do you expect the price of the stock to be at the end of the year?

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