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# Forecasting: weighted moving average

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Historical demand for a product is

DEMAND
January 12
February 11
March 15
April 12
May 16
June 15

a. Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10, find the July forecast.

b. Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast.

c. Using single exponential smoothing with &#945; = 0.2 and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish.

d. Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data.

e. Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July.

Thanks

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#### Solution Summary

Excel file shows a month's foretasted demand using:
a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10, find the July forecast.

b. Using a simple three-month moving average
c. single exponential smoothing

d. simple linear regression analysis

\$2.19

## Forecasting: Weighted average, Moving average, Exponential

Please see the two attached documents where complete problem is given.

Your Director of Supply Chain needs help in developing forecasts. Choose one of the following three options. - Must show work.....

Develop forecasts for periods 6 through 24 using MA with 3 periods, 4 periods, and 5 periods, or...

Develop forecasts for periods 3 through 24 using a smoothing factor of 0.2 and 0.3, or...

Develop forecasts for periods 5 through 24 using weighted moving average with weights of 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1.

Calculate the MAD and MSE for all of your forecasts. Start MAD and MSE calculations for moving averages in period 6. Start MAD and MSE calculations for exponential smoothing in period 5. Start MAD and MSE calculations for Weighted Averages in period 5.

Period Actual Quantity
1 420
2 222
3 276
4 167
5 266
6 305
7 430
8 412
9 388
10 368
11 220
12 457
13 267
14 277
15 242
16 590
17 147
18 566
19 267
20 361
21 338
22 351
23 217

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