# Can you alway compute the probability of an event?

What is the probability that you will receive an "A" grade?

Explain the factors you have used in arriving at this probability assessment.

Do you believe that all students in your class will arrive at the same probability assessment that you have? Why or why not?

Explain what is meant by subjective probability. Research the Internet, and provide a business-related example in which subjective probability assessment would likely be used (be sure to cite your sources).

Provide an example of when you have personally used subjective probability assessment or how you might use it in the future.

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The discussion includes not only the statistics explained, but gives the student an actual way to determine their probability of getting an A using internet data.

This solution discusses how to compute probability of random events (classic statistics) and then explains how this is different than subjective probability. Examples are given to show the student. The example includes discussing how to figure the probability of getting an A in a class. This has no references and is an example to help you "get the idea" but not a textbook-type tutorial on probabilities.

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#### Solution Preview

To figure this out, you need to review the rules of probability. The probability of an event is the number of times it is expected to occur / total number of possible events. If you have a jar of 100 marbles and 60 of them are blue, what is the probability of getting a blue marble if you just pick one at random? 60/100 = 60%

Will you get an A? What can you do? Perhaps you can look at your prior grades...how many times did you get As as the numerator and total number ...

#### Solution Summary

This solution discusses how to compute probability of random events (classic statistics) and then explains how this is different than subjective probability. Examples are given to show the student. The example includes discussing how to figure the probability of getting an A in a class. This has no references and is an example to help you "get the idea" but not a textbook-type tutorial on probabilities.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Explain the concept of risk analysis and how Monte Carlo simulation can provide useful information for making decisions. Please be detailed.

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