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Possible, Probable, & Plausible: How People make Descisions

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Trend forecasters, sometimes called "futurists", use three "P's": Possible, Probable, and Plausible. Possible includes the "outliers" on the classic bell curve. Probable narrows the spectrum to the mean, median, and mode at the top of the bell curve. Plausible narrows the probable to those activities or options that humans will actually select for action. The three "P's" illuminate how we make decisions. How, in fact, do people make decisions? Do they use data-driven decision making? Or do they use political decision making? Or do they make decisions based on personalities? Cite examples of how you think we, people make decisions. Sadly, I have worked as a lobbyist. This has caused me to recognize the power of politics, what's in it for me? In decisions, not rational what is good for the organization.

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THis solution discusses how people make decisions, whether it is data driven, political, or based on their personalities. Examples are given as well as references.

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Since most decisions are made unconsciously, a lot of how decisions are made are dependent upon the personality making the decision. The personality of the person depends upon their background, educational level, values, and a host of other variables. In addition, restfulness, emotion and wellness state also impact our decisions. Bias can creep into our decision making process, either due to selective perception, peer pressure, framing bias, or conforming to expectations. Maris Martinsons points out that nationality has an impact on decision making. An example of this bias might be in choosing where to eat lunch: Americans may worry less about the health risks and more in terms of convenience and time savings so they may choose a value meal at a fast food restaurant in comparison to a person from another culture ...

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Sally Baldwin, Ed.D
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  • BA, University of Southern California
  • MSS, United States Sports Academy
  • Ed.D, Boise State University
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