Evaluating Judgement Decisions - Expedience and/or Reflection
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Think about the business decision you discussed in Unit 1's Discussion Board. Your supervisor had asked that you expand on your self-evaluation by identifying at least two judgment issues that you had to address. Write a memo to your supervisor describing these issues. Explain how you addressed them and the degree to which your decision was based on expedience and/or reflection. Potential issues include: bias, or ethical issues related to the availability heuristic, bias related to the representative heuristic, bias related to anchoring and adjustment, avoiding uncertainty, framing effects, positive illusions, egocentrism, and regret avoidance.
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Solution Summary
Based on the scenario, this solution provides assistance with writing an memo expanding on an earlier self-evaluation, including things such as what type of thinking process was involved in two judgment decisions e.g. expedience and/or reflection and if the problem was resolved, and how. It also discusses biases that could enter the prologue solving process. 830 words.
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RESPONSE:
Your memo will to addressed to your supervisor.
Dear Ms. Supervisor,
In my last business decision I noticed tow judgment issues that I had to address. For example,.... I addressed them by engaging in a more reflective type decision-making model.
And so on...
You might consider the following information.
The availability heuristic is a rule of thumb, heuristic, or cognitive bias, where people base their prediction of an outcome on the vividness and emotional impact rather than on actual probability. An everyday example would be the statement: "Sorry I'm late-I hit every red light on the way here." Here the aggravation of the red lights made them seem more prevalent than they actually were. Perhaps you made a decision where your emotions dictated the decision, as opposed to the facts. This type of bias in deicon making is an ethical issue because the decision lacks reliability.
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic also results in bias. We tend to base estimates and decisions on known 'anchors' or familiar positions, with an adjustment relative to this start point. We are better at relative thinking than absolute thinking. The Primacy Effect and anchoring may combine, for example if a list of possible sentences given to a jury, they will be anchored by the first option. Example: If asked whether the population of Turkey ...
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