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    Estimating Price and Quantity of Bricks Using Expected Costs

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    A building project requires the use of a special brick.

    a) The most likely brick price is $120.00/ton but this price is volatile and fluctuates. The most optimistic price is $80.00/ton and the most pessimistic price is $180.00/ton. (Note there are 3 data points in for this estimate.)

    What is the expected price of the brick?

    b) Also, I'm uncertain how much of the brick I'll need. I have to wait and see what the building site conditions are like and what changes the owners have in mind. I think I'll most likely need 36 tons but could require as little as 28 tons, or as much as 56 tons.

    How much of the brick can I expect to use?

    c) Based on the estimates, what is my expected cost for the brick using the COMPLEX method?

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    https://brainmass.com/business/business-management/estimating-price-quantity-bricks-expected-costs-503637

    Solution Preview

    a. The formula for the Expected price of brick is (a + 4m + b)/6
    Where a = optimistic price, b = pessimistic price and m = most likely price
    Given:
    Most likely brick price: $120.00/ton
    Most optimistic price: $80.00/ton
    Most pessimistic price: $180.00/ton

    Solution:
    Expected price of brick per ton = (a + 4m + ...

    Solution Summary

    The solution computes for the expected price of bricks and the quantity of bricks to order given the most likely, most optimistic, and most pessimistic price scenarios.

    $2.19

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