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Statistics: Regression Analysis Problems

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1. The administrator of a school board in a large country was analyzing the average mathematics test scores in the schools under her control. She noticed that there were dramatic differences in scores among the schools. In an attempt to improve the scores of all the schools, she decided to determine the factors that account for the differences. Accordingly, she took a random sample of 40 schools across the country and, for each, determined the mean test score last year, the percentage of teachers in each school who hold at least one university degree in mathematics, the mean age, and the mean annual income (in $thousands) of mathematics teachers. Data is in file below. Use a 5% significance level
(a) Conduct a regression analysis to develop the equation.
(b) Is the model valid?
(c) Interpret and test the coefficients.
(d) Predict with 95% confidence the test score at a school where 50% of the mathematics teachers have mathematics degrees, the mean age is 43, and the mean annual income is $48,300.

2. A developer who specializes in summer cottage properties is considering purchasing a large tract of land adjoining a lake. The current owner of the tract has already subdivided the land into separate building lots and has prepared the lots by removing some of the trees. The developer wants to forecast the value of each lot. From previous experience she knows that the most important factors affecting the price of the lot are size, number of mature trees, and distance to the lake. From a nearby area, she gathers the relevant data for 60 recently sold lots. Data is in file below. Use a 5% significance level
a) Find the regression equation.
b) What is the standard error of estimate? Interpret its value.
c) What is the coefficient of determination? What does this statistic tell you?

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Statistics Problems - Regression Analysis, Autocorrelation, Multicollinearity

1. Suppose an appliance manufacturer is doing a regression analysis, using quarterly time-series data, of the factors affecting its sales of appliances. A regression equation was estimated between appliance sales (in dollars) as the dependent variable and disposable personal income and new housing starts as the independent variables. The statistical tests of the model showed large t-values for both independent variables, along with a high r2 value. However, analysis of the residuals indicated that substantial autocorrelation was present.

a. What are some of the possible causes of this autocorrelation?

b. How does this autocorrelation affect the conclusions concerning the significance of the individual explanatory variables and the overall explanatory power of the regression model?

c. Given that a person uses the model for forecasting future appliance sales, how does this autocorrelation affect the accuracy of these forecasts?

d. What techniques might be used to remove this autocorrelation from the model?

2. Suppose the appliance manufacturer discussed in Exercise 1 also developed another model, again using time-series data, where appliance sales was the dependent variable and disposable personal income and retail sales of durable goods were the independent variables. Although the r2 statistic is high, the manufacturer also suspects that serious multicollinearity exists between the two independent variables.

a. In what ways does the presence of this multicollinearity affect the results of the regression analysis?

b. Under what conditions might the presence of multicollinearity cause problems in the use of this regression equation in designing a marketing plan for appliance sales?

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