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Mean Absolute Deviation

Given a set of historical data (see attachment) I need to make a forecast for 26 periods using whatever is the best/most accurate of the simple forecasting techniques we have covered so far in our 2nd year class.

These include:

1)Simple Moving Average
2)Weighted Moving Average
3)Exponential Smoothing
4)Linear Regression
5)Seasonal Forecasting via Regression (i.e., linear trends with multiplicative seasonality or nonlinear trends with multiplicative seasonality, and linear trends with additive seasonality or nonlinear trends with additive seasonality)

We need to investigate at least three different ways to forecast this data, and present the MAD (mean absolute deviation) and parameter values of each technique we tried. And state why we ended up going with a particular method as the most accurate.

If we use moving aveage approaches, we are to use no more than 15 averaging periods.

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Given a set of historical data (see attachment) I need to make a forecast for 26 periods using whatever is the best/most accurate of the simple forecasting techniques we have covered so far in our 2nd year class.

These include:

1)Simple Moving Average
2)Weighted Moving Average
3)Exponential Smoothing
4)Linear Regression
5)Seasonal Forecasting via Regression (i.e., linear trends with multiplicative seasonality or nonlinear trends with multiplicative seasonality, and linear trends with additive seasonality or nonlinear trends with additive seasonality)

We need to investigate at least three different ways to forecast this data, and present the MAD (mean absolute deviation) and parameter values of each technique we tried. And state why we ended up going with a particular method as the most accurate.

If we use moving aveage approaches, we are to use no more than 15 averaging periods.

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