# Mean Absolute Deviation

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Given a set of historical data (see attachment) I need to make a forecast for 26 periods using whatever is the best/most accurate of the simple forecasting techniques we have covered so far in our 2nd year class.

These include:

1)Simple Moving Average

2)Weighted Moving Average

3)Exponential Smoothing

4)Linear Regression

5)Seasonal Forecasting via Regression (i.e., linear trends with multiplicative seasonality or nonlinear trends with multiplicative seasonality, and linear trends with additive seasonality or nonlinear trends with additive seasonality)

We need to investigate at least three different ways to forecast this data, and present the MAD (mean absolute deviation) and parameter values of each technique we tried. And state why we ended up going with a particular method as the most accurate.

If we use moving aveage approaches, we are to use no more than 15 averaging periods.

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##### Solution Summary

Given a set of historical data (see attachment) I need to make a forecast for 26 periods using whatever is the best/most accurate of the simple forecasting techniques we have covered so far in our 2nd year class.

These include:

1)Simple Moving Average

2)Weighted Moving Average

3)Exponential Smoothing

4)Linear Regression

5)Seasonal Forecasting via Regression (i.e., linear trends with multiplicative seasonality or nonlinear trends with multiplicative seasonality, and linear trends with additive seasonality or nonlinear trends with additive seasonality)

We need to investigate at least three different ways to forecast this data, and present the MAD (mean absolute deviation) and parameter values of each technique we tried. And state why we ended up going with a particular method as the most accurate.

If we use moving aveage approaches, we are to use no more than 15 averaging periods.

##### Solution Preview

Please see the attachment. Main Analysis and results can be found on the sheet "Main Analysis". The result ...

###### Education

- BSc , Wuhan Univ. China
- MA, Shandong Univ.

###### Recent Feedback

- "Your solution, looks excellent. I recognize things from previous chapters. I have seen the standard deviation formula you used to get 5.154. I do understand the Central Limit Theorem needs the sample size (n) to be greater than 30, we have 100. I do understand the sample mean(s) of the population will follow a normal distribution, and that CLT states the sample mean of population is the population (mean), we have 143.74. But when and WHY do we use the standard deviation formula where you got 5.154. WHEN & Why use standard deviation of the sample mean. I don't understand, why don't we simply use the "100" I understand that standard deviation is the square root of variance. I do understand that the variance is the square of the differences of each sample data value minus the mean. But somehow, why not use 100, why use standard deviation of sample mean? Please help explain."
- "excellent work"
- "Thank you so much for all of your help!!! I will be posting another assignment. Please let me know (once posted), if the credits I'm offering is enough or you ! Thanks again!"
- "Thank you"
- "Thank you very much for your valuable time and assistance!"

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