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Forecasting a time series

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In forecasting a monthly time series over a five-year period from January 2005 to December 2009, the exponential trend forecasting equation for January is log Yi = 2.0 + 0.01 Xi + 0.10 (January)

Take the anti-log of the appropriate coefficient from this equation and interpret the:

(a) Y intercept, b0
(b) Monthly compound growth rate
(c) January multiplier

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Solution Summary

The expert examines forecasting a time series with the anti-log of the appropriate coefficient from the equation and interprets the results.

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Answer:

First, we take the antilog of the equation: Yi=exp(2.0 + 0.01 Xi + 0.10 (January) )=exp(2.0)*exp(0.01Xi)*exp(0.10(January)).

(a) Y intercept or bo: Here ...

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