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    Forecasting of Time Series Data

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    The monthly number of permits granted for building houses in a large city is seasonal (there tend to be more permits granted for construction during spring and summer months than during winter months). The following table shows the monthly seasonal indexes for building permits:

    JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
    0.86 0.79 0.98 1.15 1.29 1.35 1.12 1.05 0.95 0.91 0.78 0.75

    Using several years of permit data, beginning in April of 1999 (i.e., corresponds to April of ), an analyst reported that the trend line that describes the monthly permit data is of the form. Assuming that a multiplicative model can be used to describe the building permit data, generate a forecast for the number of building permits that you expect will be granted in January of 2004.

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    Solution Summary

    The solution provides step by step method for determining the time series forecasting. Formula for the calculation and interpretations of the results are also included. This solution is provided in an attached Word and Excel document.

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